Twitter has announced a permanent suspension of President Donald Trump’s account, citing "the risk of further incitement of violence" after conducting a review of recent activity. Twitter issued a temporary suspension earlier this week following the events taking place at the US Capitol and required the removal of three specific tweets before the account would be eligible for reinstatement. Prior to this, President Trump used Twitter to announce policy positions and campaign decisions. See the announcement from Twitter’s Safety Team here.
Feb 4, mid-market: Thank you everyone for your support. I really don't know what to say. The company keeps getting pounded because GME is having a sell-off, which doesn't make any sense. But that's the market for you. It doesn't always make sense. I still believe 2021 will be a big year for Nokia, although it doesn't look like there is any way we'll manage the crazy play anymore. Still, it was nice to see something that was impossible become possible, even if it was for only a few days. And remember, we can still do it any day. All it takes is for us to work together. If you want. Make up your own mind. I'm still holding. NOK will recover from this. Fair value is at least 4.81, and way more when 5G really gets going. So if you can, I would buy some more now. You'll thank me later for the tip. It may not be the most exciting play, but it is what investing is all about. Slow and steady growth that compounds to make a big change. One of these days I'll be able to post again, when the mods lift the restrictions on new posts and things get a little less crazy around here. When I post again about NOK, I'll post the link here too. Thanks everyone! Feb 4 premarket: Earnings out! They beat expectations a bit, their revenue was a little smaller than expected. Overall, good quarter, good year. Here it is: https://www.nokia.com/system/files/2021-02/nokia_results_2020_q4.pdf Feb 2, end of day: It's getting pretty crazy out there, but here's what you should know. The NOK chart is following the GME chart. It's got way more shares so the bumps and dips are more stable, but that's the main trend. What that means: GME has no underlying value at this level. It is a gamble on the short squeeze. It might pay off, or it might not. If people panic sell like yesterday, it won't. NOK is very different. It has underlying value. So if someone dumps it below its target price, the best thing to do is just to buy and wait for the value to go down. Thursday NOK reveals its earnings, and they are likely to be good based on what Ericsson revealed. Ericsson is one of its main competitors and a very similar company currently trading at twice the NOK price. Feb 1, end of day: Told you it was a value share! Still trading at target, still low risk. Either dumping has stopped, or normies are piling in because of the results. Either way good news, hope you made some money today!Vol today 190m, still way above average. Normal average 30m before we changed it lol. That means since Wednesday over 2bn shares have changed hands. Hope you got em! Ericsson (NOK competitor) results suggest NOK will report good numbers this week, NOK upped to BUY on market watch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-upped-to-buy-after-ericsson-results-2021-02-01 Unless my math is retarded (which it is cos ahmsodumb), if everyone (7m) on this sub spends $3000 at current price ($4.55) we BUY THE FLOAT. The more they keep dumping, the more shares we get cheap. Think about it.EDIT: buying the ENTIRE float is NOT the point of this play. I know share price goes up when supply is restricted, just read the play. This is just an example of what happens when they dump a value share on millions of retail investors. BLACKROCK IS IN PEOPLE: https://fintel.io/so/us/nok/blackrock Robin hood increases NOK allowance to 2000 shares for next week (still any allowance is CRAZY because it's a VALUE SHARE THAT HASN'T BUBBLED) https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/changes-due-to-recent-market-volatility/?fbclid=IwAR2SK9VQOI_eBgBF0SK4-R1eQjBkSAe3sd6KMwSBaCPmz38e5cc8siRdhEY You dump a VALUE STOCK on me and think I'm in danger? Added new summary (30 Jan), and Q&A. FIRST OFF: This post is not financial advice or anything except the rant of some idiot retard who is an idiot. I tell you straight up that there is a normal investment side to the NOK play (STILL MEANS RISK, which YOU will have to decide!) and that there is a CRAZY side that is PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE. If you want to play the crazy play then you’re also a crazy retard idiot just like me. I don’t know shit, I just look at graphs and go WOW. Do your own due diligence, I am not a financial advisor. Don’t ask me if you should buy, I don’t know, can you afford to? Are you comfortable with the risks? I don’t know these things. You do. NOK PLAY: Here’s how it works. YOU DECIDE if you want to take part. 1.It’s not a short squeeze like GME. Get that out of your head. 2.It’s a value/momentum play. The value part is just normal granny&grampa investing. See a good company going cheap, buy and hold. Tell your mom, dad, granny and grampa, cousins, relatives, friends. 3.The momentum part is the crazy part, and if it works the share will SKYROCKET as long as YOU DON’T SELL. GME is the biggest short squeeze in history, the NOK play could be the biggest value buy in history.
The beauty of it is that it works because Wall St is dumping NOK irrationally. That’s why the price is going down (slowly). They think they’re attacking us and slowly winning, but they’re giving us a value share cheap = their money, our pockets. By the time they realize what we did, it will be too late.
Don’t panic, and keep buying the dumps (if you think the company has value), and if we hold the line you could see a miracle.
3310 HANDS Value Part (crazy part in Q&A): The company is healthy, has good financials, it’s a market leader in 5G (it’s main competitors are Huawei and Ericsson, they have about the same market share share of 5G) a lot of potential to be the company that builds 5G for a large part of the world. NOK is currently trading at a standard price for the value it holds. It is not a bubble. Here’s Nokia’s 5G contracts: https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/5g-contracts/ Here’s Bloomberg shitting bricks that we’ve realized that Nokia is a value bet: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-28/gamestop-may-be-a-reddit-wallstreetbets-game-but-nokia-sure-isn-t Nokia also just unveiled new 1tb tech, the thing AFTER 5G. First on the world. They have it, they’re showing the world it works. Here is their press release from Wednesday: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nokia-and-elisa-push-network-boundaries-with-worlds-first-1t-deployment-2021-01-27 They are so trusted that NASA got them to build a cell network on the MOON. Literally. If you’re NASA, would you hire your retard uncle Earl to build cell towers on the moon? No, you hire someone who CAN ACTUALLY DO IT. Imagine what it takes to build something really big and complicated on the moon? Now imagine who’s the likely guy who can do it. That’s right, NOKIA. Here they are, going to the moon: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/ If the Huawei 5G war continues, who do you think US and Europe is going to back, especially since NOK already has the next tech, owns a bunch of patents, is from FINLAND that has never tried to take over the world and has a brand that EVERYONE who lived in 2000s remembers? Here’s a guy who’s been doing the numbers for a while now in case you want to see them: https://www.reddit.com/useJimming/comments/l7f6ua/part_iv_option_chain_analysis_on_nok_and_why_you/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I don’t know him, I don’t know the numbers as well, but looks pretty good to me. Amazing due diligence. But what do I know, I’m an idiot. So is he. So are you. We’re all fucking retards, just ask Wall Street. I poked myself in the same eye twice yesterday. We’re “dumb money”. They have other names for us too. So, worst case, you just bought into a good company at a fair value. If the crazy play doesn’t work, you just hold on to them and let them become the world leader in 5G. Unlike GME (NOT SAYING SELL!), NOK will not fall 99%. Or if it does, I'M BUYING THAT SHIT because if a HEALTHY COMPANY FALLS 99% you make some CRAZY MONEY on that when it bounces back. Q&A Q: You retards were tricked by bots to buying NOK, there’s no short A: This just full on doesn’t get what the play is about. IT IS NOT A SHORT SQUEEZE. THIS IS NOT GME RINSE REPEAT. GME IS A DIFFERENT PLAY. NOK IS A VALUE PLAY. How many more ways can I say it? Not sure. How many more do I have to? Q: Stop taking attention away from GME you retards A: Nobody is saying sell your GME. Nobody is saying that. GME is too expensive for a lot of people, and GME is VERY RISKY and NOK has genuine value behind it. If the NOK play works, those people who couldn’t afford GME can still get on & get rich. If it doesn’t, they most likely still make money on a good company. Q: This play is impossible / crazy / it’ll never work / there are too many shares you retards A: This is ALMOST true. This play WAS impossible until 1/27/2021. That is why nobody has EVER tried anything like this. But it’s NOT impossible anymore. Look at this graph. Look at it. See that spike? What the fuck is that? I’ll tell you my fellow autistic space boot packin 3310 using NOKSTER. https://preview.redd.it/v473xl00ghe61.png?width=2182&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf5aac455156dbadb919b80afacb5232af0a05b5 That spike was them running out of shares for half an hour. Trade was stopped until they could find more, to avoid an artificial spike in the price. Proof? Look at the volumes. A small sale (red) causes a small dip. Two small buys cause a MASSIVE SPIKE. They ran out, and had to call their friends to liquidate more shares so the price wouldn’t skyrocket "artificially". But that’s IMPOSSIBLE for NOK. NOK has 5bn shares. Nokia should be much more stable because it has so many shares, having a crazy demand spike is crazy. I saw it, and fell off my chair and since I’m such a retard it took me an hour to get back up. So it was impossible, and that’s why Wall Street won’t see it coming. They think this is their attack and they’re about to break through our ranks, but they’re actually playing right into our hands. Wendnesday, we moved 1bn shares. Thursday, when nobody could buy, we still moved 500m. Yesterday, we still moved 360m. We’ve moved so much NOK in the past three days, the average volume of the share has MORE THAN DOUBLED in THREE DAYS. The play is not impossible anymore, but Wall St thinks it is, which is how we can use their own strength and mass against them. But the value buy still makes sense WHENEVER you see someone dump a valuable share. Someone sells you a 100$ bill for 90$? Buy it. They attack? We absorb. They dump, we buy, they run out of shares, we hold. They’re fucked, and they just handed us a bunch of value shares at an undervalue = they just gave us their money. They are just giving it to you. When they realize they can’t buy them back at a lower value, what do you think is going to happen? Q: We don’t do value plays, we do short squeezes you retards A: Go back to April. Look at u/DeepFuckingValue’s position. GME was a value play. It’s only in April that the Short Squeeze became possible. Look it up yourself. Will a short squeeze also happen with NOK? It’s unlikely. Hedge Fund Assholes have been increasing their shorts in NOK in the last few days, but they won’t go over 100% on 5bn shares because they're not as stupid as me. But it doesn’t have to happen. We just need to buy the dumps. If they short, great. More money for us as long as we don’t let them drive the price down with the dumps. Q: Why is NOK not rocketing? A: Because Wall Street is dumping, just like I said they would after the Wednesday spike. That’s the whole plan. They dump, we hold the line, buy the dumps and keep the price steady. The GME short squeeze guys waited for this for UP TO TWO YEARS. I saw it in April. I thought it was crazy. I didn’t jump in back then. If I did, I’d have about as much money as u/DeepFuckingValue. On a value share, you can afford to wait. GME was originally a value play. That’s what I should have realized in April. SO JUST WAIT AND HOLD (if you believe and idiot like me, which you shouldn't, no need to message me about it). It’s been two days since this play even became possible. Q: How do we know it’s working? A: Look at the volume of shares traded. Nokia has 5bn shares. In the last three days, nearly 2bn have been traded. The price is still up from last week. That’s how. This has already been a giant dumping campaign. How come the price hasn’t floored? What happens if we just buy it all up? What happens if they run out, and then their shorts blow, the price bumps up, CNBC tells the world we broke another short wall, everyone piles on, Wall Street realizes they just gave us their shares at an undervalue and try to buy back, we don’t sell, we have all the shares? The Wednesday spike is what happens, except this time there is no stopping it. If they stop trading again and try to dump some more, you just buy up the dump and keep the spike going. Spike stops being a spike and becomes a floor. Q: Where will this max out and when? A: What do you think I’m from the future? I just saw an impossible thing happen on Wednesday, and we need to make it happen again. Look at the graph. Look at it. Set your targets to $3310, that should do it. Q: When should I buy? What should I buy? Should I buy? A: Be your own person. Buy when you feel like it, if you feel like it. Q: Wall street bots are promoting NOK. A: I don’t give a shit. If they are, and we keep buying, they are promoting giving us money. Part 2: (29 Jan) First off, much as I appreciate the love, I can’t play your hand for you. You have to make your own decisions. Do I know where NOK is going to be tomorrow? Nope. Nobody does. All that I have for you is the news from Wednesday that this play is no longer totally impossible:
I think the assholes are going to try to dump you out of the market
It won’t work if we keep the demand up.
The way we keep demand up is we buy, and others will follow us because the company is good.
When they realize it won’t work, they’ll need to start buying back in.
Then it’ll be too late, cos they dumped their shares on US and we are RETARDS who HOLD. That means that when their shorts start to go bust, the price will jump up (a little bit, not like with GME at first – this is a different play based on the health of the company, not a straight up short squeeze. The short position on NOK is much smaller).
When the price jumps up, and the GME guys start cashing out, they need somewhere to put that cash. Some of them pay off student loans, or buy cars or whatever, but the smart ones will go NOK.
How you play it is up to you. I can’t tell you if you should buy, what minute to buy, what app to use and so on. All I can say is I buy the dumps. You need to decide for yourself if you want to do it. You can see the dumps on any app, or even yahoo finance. I buy NOK on NYSE, and I buy straight up shares (so they can’t lend out mine for shorts) but you’re free to do what you want. I’m a retard, you’re a retard, we’re all autistic fucks, we make up our own mind and stick with it. Secondly, what I said yesterday morning would happen, did happen. And it happened exactly like I said it would. So don’t get scared off, just buy the dumps. And they know that they’ll be fucked if we keep buying the dumps. That’s why they stopped us from buying NOK. NOK hasn’t bubbled, stopping us from buying NOK was because they know we’re on to them. They know the dumps won’t work if we JUST KEEP BUYING and HOLDING. The play works, they’re scared, we caught them with their pants down, they’re trying to get ahead of us. OK, so about what happened yesterday with RH and others. I’m so fucking angry about this. What RH and others did is completely insane. Their argument is “you guys are throwing your money away on a bubble, we’re just protecting you”. Bullshit. I won’t comment on GME, I’ll let u/DeepFuckingValue or one of those guys do that. I’ll just say, that short squeezes happen with hedge funds all the fucking time. Why is trading not stopped for them? They have people’s fucking pensions that they’re playing with. But for NOK, it’s TOTAL BULLSHIT. Here’s why:
NOK HAS NOT BUBBLED. Look at the graph. Look at it. It is still down from 2016. NOK is well within normal variation. Long term, you barely see the spike from a couple of days ago. There is nothing to “protect us” from. They’re protecting themselves.
The NOK play is not a straight up short squeeze. The play is HELPED by the shorts that are there, as long as we can keep the demand up and keep the price up against the dumping, but that’s all.
NOK is a healthy company, with new and important tech, a great brand, a lot of potential. You want to see why, read the original post. ANYONE who sees a company like that being dumped for NO REASON would buy. So should you. They are only dumping it because they’re trying to fuck up our play.
Ok that’s enough for now. I’ll see you all when I’ve got my space boots on, in my house on the FUCKING MOON, next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA with my broke ass. If this doesn’t work, then at least you TOOK ON THE MOTHERFUCKERS and EARNED A PLACE at the table with FUCKING ODIN. UNBREAKABLE 3310! ORIGINAL POST (28 Jan): I get it, it’s not the play. I’m not saying sell your GME. I’m not a bot or a spy or a wall street asshole. I’m a regular guy who’s got a couple of bucks in his bank account and plays videogames and wants a fucking house to live in like my parents had when they were young. If you don’t agree with me, just say so. I’m also not a financial advisor, so make up your own minds you autistic fucks. But, BUT, yesterday we did something they’ve never seen. Yesterday, we made them run out of NOK shares. That’s what that big spike was, and that’s why trading was stopped for 2h. If we keep doing that, it will be the biggest wall street wealth transfer from assholes to retards in history. Because they will keep dumping it until it’s too late. Impossible, you say. Too many shares, you say. Well listen up. Yesterday, in ONE DAY, we traded, or caused others to trade, 1bn shares of Nokia. That is 1/5 of all the Nokia shares in the world. That’s never happened, EVER. Not even when Nokia was the biggest phone company in the world. 3516.16% of average trading volume. Do you get it? They’ll keep dumping their stock, we keep buying them cheap, and then they won’t be so cheap anymore when they try to buy back in. We can move 1bn shares IN A DAY. ONE DAY. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Why do they stop trading in NYSE? Cos they ran out of shares temporarily and they don’t want “artificial” spikes in the prices. So they made us retards wait a couple of hours while some assholes called some other assholes to unload their shares into the market, and once they had enough, they started again. That’s why that spike went down right after the freeze. But then we did it again. And they had to stop again. The price just wouldn’t go down. The assholes who’d just unloaded shares were probably back on the phone with the other assholes who’d convinced them. Everyone is watching us. What we do, millions of normal folks do with us, and every wallstreet asshole does against us. What did the asshole brigade do? They started shorting NOK. They will continue to do that, because they think we’re retards (they are correct). But how come the price didn’t go down? It’s got 5bn shares, and everyone whos ever held it was dumping it. How could we ever keep up the demand when there are so many shares out there? How is this going to work? Because the retard brigade was buying it. There’s 3m of us and counting. If we each put 600 bucks on NOK, we get 100 shares, and that’s 300m shares. Now imagine what happens if we put 6000 on it. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. And every dip you see, you buy more. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. They'll keep dumping, we keep buying, until they realize the price isn't going down. Then they start buying, we keep holding, the market runs out of NOK. Price skyrockets. And normies outside were following us. They can see that the stock is still LOW, lower than 2016. This means they don’t think it’s a bubble that’s going to crash on them. So why do the normies follow us on this, and not on GME? (I’m not saying sell GME). Because GME has never, ever been anywhere near where it is now. That scares a normal guy who’s just trying to put in some savings for his family. They think this is some Dutch tulip market shit. Not so with NOK. Even with the spike from yesterday, NOK is still DOWN from 2016. Remember 2016? Remember that being a really big year for Nokia? No, me neither. And let’s not even get started on where it has been in the past. Yesterday's spike barely shows on the graph. You know what is going to be a big year? 2021 and 2022. Why? What else did NOK say yesterday? Well, they revealed that they have a new kind of 1 terabit data transfer networks shit, what do I know, I’m not a techie. But it IS a new kind of technology that’s going to kick 5Gs ass. And my fellow retards of the most honorable retard brigade – Do you think we’re going to need more data this year than last year? Remember how Netflix had to downgrade its picture quality in March because the networks couldn’t handle the amount people were streaming? What do you think is going to happen with the company that solves that? But why would NOK be the company? Well, remember the 5G war with China? US and Europe can’t buy 5G from China, because then China has our networks. But guess who US and Europe aren’t afraid of? Fucking FINLAND. Finland, the land of NOKIA. So tiny that some people think the whole country is a conspiracy theory and doesn’t really exist. Sorry Finnish people, nobody gives a shit about you. Good thing for you, cos you get to build the 5G network on the moon and shit because nobody is scared that Finland will take over the world. Want proof? They are literally building one on the FUCKING MOON: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/ And we’re going to send them there. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 But hang on, why is NOK so low in the first place if it’s so great? Answer: because Microsoft fucked them. That’s right, they sent one of their own assholes to infiltrate the NOK, leak a bunch shit to drive the share price down, and then buy the phone part of the company. These assholes wrecked the company, the Finnish economy, and every middle class shareholder who was just trying to put their kids to college. Imagine everyone who’d be fucked if someone did that to Apple now. Worked like a charm. Firesale. Business restructuring. Lost their phones. NOK never recovered. The asshole they sent from Microsoft? Went back to work for Microsoft, and was paid a shit ton of money for what he did. His name is Stephen Elop. Look it up. So they have tech that nobody else has and a brand that everyone recognizes. But what don’t they have? Money. That’s why they’re building this 1tb magic network thing in tiny fucking possibly fake Finland to show everyone it works. But if we drive the share price up, do you think that’s going to change? So FUCK IT. I’m in for every penny, and I am HOLDING. I’ll see you in my house ON the MOON next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA you BEAUTIFUL RETARDED MOTHERFUCKERS. TL;DR: NOK is literally going to the moon. Go there with them. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
In this post we are going to go through an in-depth analysis of AMD, we are going to take a look at their fundamental value, their DCF, do a little technical analysis and set some price targets for the near future and for the long term ~Very Long Post~ [Do NOT Read if you don't like comprehensive analysis] Hello everyone! Let’s start by talking a little about AMD, they are one of the biggest semiconductor companies in the world, and they operate in multiple segments like Computing, Gaming, Enterprise, Semi-Custom and many more with some of the most important products for the company being microprocessors and GPUs both for personal use like (gaming consoles & PCs) while also offering products for professional use like data centers. The company was founded more than 50 years ago and have more than 11K employees, with the company overperforming recently as they have seen a more than 80% rise in the last year. So, guys, let’s go a little through the 4th quarter & yearly results for AMD. The company reported a revenue of $3.24B in the 4th quarter, with a 53% growth since last year, while for the full year they earned almost $10B as they more than doubled they quarterly and full year net income, which resulted in a $1.29 earnings/share for the year. The company has 2 major income segments in Computing & Graphics which brought in sales of over $6.4B for the year and an operating income of $1.26B and the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment which brought in $3.3B in revenues and almost $400M in operating income. They also provide an additional segment that doesn’t bring in any revenues but which represents costs that can’t be associated with any of the other 2 segments, but also includes stock-based compensations and acquisitions related costs. Both of these 2 segments have seen huge increases in the past year with operating income doubling for the computing & graphics segment and increasing by almost 50% for the EEC segment. AMD didn’t have such a big capital expenditure in 2020, with only $294M but this can increase depending on the demand of their products while they also adjusted their income with $312M in depreciation & amortizations. Both of these numbers have increased by 40 to 50% in the past years and will be important in the DCF valuation. They have also managed to increase the gross profit margin to 45%, up 2% from 2019 as their earnings before interest & tax or EBIT stood at $1.37B. The company has seen a continued earnings per share growth overall, despite the first 2 quarters of 2020 coming in lower than previous, but that was to be expected as this was impacted by the reduced revenues in Q1 & Q2 before things started to pick up back again, as they finished with a huge increase overall in the 4th quarter. Their product portfolio has become a great challenge to Intel’s market share and is continuing to evolve, as Intel is still struggling to regain momentum with their products. AMD announced the world’s best processors for laptop and an enterprise variant that is expected to be available in the first half of 2021. They have also launched the fastest AMD gaming graphics card ever while also working with big companies like Amazon on their AWS cloud offerings & Microsoft Azure which are planning to use their upcoming 3rd generation EPYC processors. AMD is also involved in supercomputers which indicates that they are continuing to innovate and develop products that will be in high demand for the foreseeable future The one big thing that can propel AMD even more in the future is the proposed acquisition or more rather merger with Xilinx , which also beat earnings expectations the other day, with revenues of over $800M for the quarter and a Free Cash Flow of 44% of their revenues. Xilinx has a market cap of over $32B, and the combination of the 2 companies would create synergies. They are targeting an all-stock transaction which will have implications on my projections, but as time has gone, the $35B price tag is only a 10% premium for Xilinx. The one hurdle the companies have to pass is the regulatory procedures. We will have to wait and see if the deal goes through or not, as it’s expected the deal should be finished by the end of the year, with AMD shareholders retaining 74% of the new group shares and Xilinx holding the remaining 26%. AMD also offered great guidance for 2021 as they expect the strength of their product portfolio to push AMD revenues up 37% over 2020 and also expect their gross margin to increase to 47%, while they expect an effective tax rate for next year of 15%, well belove the 21% US corporate tax rate. I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates and expectations. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research and so on… So, let’s start with the Unleveraged discounted free cash flow projections to see what the current valuation of the company is. I used their total revenues projections that we will discuss later on in the long-term projection and the net income for 2020 to which I added back the Depreciation & Amortization costs they had in 2020 and got to a $1.68B EBITDA. For the next years I used 1% increase in EBIT margin which I think they can achieve pretty easy and an increase in capex of 10%/year in order to maintain an increased production capacity while also applying a 15% decrease in their net working capital. So, for an 8% discount rate, which is pretty much the Average SP500 return, we get a $9.7B Discounted Free Cash Flow by 2025. Now there are 2 methods of doing the valuation, either the perpetuity method or the EBITDA multiple method, but for both of them we do have to subtract or add the net assets or debt, which in this case stands $5.75B in assets. I personally think a use of the average is better suited for most companies, though some of the companies trade largely on the EBITDA approach and other on the growth approach. If we use the growth approach, we can see that AMD is pretty fairly valued right now, as this implies a loss of 2%, while on the other hand the EBITDA multiple approach gives us a valuation of over $112, meaning an almost 30% undervaluation of the company. But as I said, I think a use of the average is best, so, my current price target for AMD in 2021 is $98.82, implying a 13.5% return from the last price. And now let’s move on to a longer-term valuation of the company based on the growth projections I have for AMD. For my projections I actually just used their full year results and implied different growth rates for each revenue stream. I think we can continue to see 50% growth rate in the EEC segment for 2021 and then implying a gradual slowing of their growth, while for the Computing & Graphics segment I implied a 35% growth, way lower than the over 100% they saw in 2020, also implying a gradual slowdown of the trend by 2025. I think these growth implications are pretty reasonable giving the high demand the company has seen for their entire product line, especially as gaming revenues have continued to increase, and also taking into account the need for their products in data centers, cloud usage & digital currency mining. For their cost of sales, I started from the current ones which stand at 80% for the Computing & Graphics segment and implied a 1% improvement each year, while for the EEC segment I started from the 88% expense margin right now and implied a gradual 2% improvement. I also maintained their other expense regarding to the cost of sales to 3% of their total revenues, in-line with the previous years. This means for 2025 we would get just over $33B in revenues and $26B in expenses, resulting in a gross profit of almost $7B. I also maintained the same capex as in the DCF and also substracted the interest & other expenses for which I implied a 5% annual growth, thus leading us to a $6.28B in earnings before tax. I maintained their 15% effective tax rate projections and also diluted their shares by 1% each year accounting for some dilution in the stock. So, for the $5.3B in 2025 revenues after tax and accounting for 1.27B shares, that would mean a $4.21 earnings/share, meaning the stock is trading at 20 times forward price to earnings for 2025. I like to base my future projections on Forward/PE valuations so, with the current projected PE and depending on what PE you assume for the stock between 25 and 40, the stock can trade between $105 and almost $168. So, after all these estimates what are my price targets? HERE are my actual price targets I think the 2025 bear case price we can see AMD trade at is $115 which would imply a return of almost 33% , while my base case and my pretty safe assumption is that AMD will trade at 137$/share by the end of 2025, implying a 57% return on the current price. But my most bullish case would see the company trading at $158, which would imply a return of over 81%. So yeah guys, these are my Overall price targets for 2025, my bear case is an average of the 25 & 30 PE ratio, while the normal case is the average between the 30 and 35 PE’s with the most bullish case valuing the company between a PE of 35-40. So HERE is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for AMD by 2025, if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion. I think these are pretty reasonable targets, as the semiconductors industry will keep on booming in the next decade, as the world will need more & more chips that also keep advancing in technology. The company also has very good financials, with almost $9B in assets vs just $3.1B in total liabilities, which can be easily paid by just the current assets. And let’s also take a look at what the estimates are from the analysts. We can only see EPS estimates until 2023 of $3.22, which I think is safe to say can grow an additional dollar by 2025, so my projections are pretty in-line with what other experts anticipate. So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for AMD? Let’s look at this CHART, the stock just broke below the long-term uptrend but has seen good support at the $86-87 levels, which is where the next support should stand. We saw AMD pushing towards $100 in the beginning of the year, but it hit major resistance once Intel also announced a change in their leadership, as they brought in the WMWare CEO Gelsinger, but it’s very hard to see him turn around Intel in a very short time. Intel will need some years & a lot of capital expenditure to turn things around, if they do manage to do it at all. AMD hasn’t been overbought since August, and currently has an RSI near 41, which is pretty oversold for a good company, so I expect to see them regaining some momentum in the near-term, but I guess the market is very busy with the current short-squeezes. AMD will se a lot of resistance breaking through the $100 level, not because of something fundamental with the company, but I guess it’s a psychological resistance rather. And let’s take a quick look at what 24 analysts on Wall Street are saying. They mostly have a buy call on the company with an average price target of $100 and a high price target of $135. So, I think the analyst are pretty spot on with AMD, but my PT are slightly lower as it’s always better to undershoot and overperform rather than the other way around. So, what would I do? Well, I own AMD stock and I believe it still has plenty of room to grow, so I would start building a position right now and add on any weakness, and I would especially buy more if the stock drops even lower than 80$. One last thing to mention about AMD is that they also have a very big % of their shares held by institutions, with over 74% of the float being held by big funds like Vanguard & Blackrock which does significantly reduce the sell-off possibilities. So, this are my projections and my expectations for the company, I think Lisa SU has done a terrific job since becoming the CEO, and has driven AMD to a renewed approach to their business, as the company has been booming in the past 5 years, growing more than twice as much as Nvidia and crushing the SP500 and Intel’s performance. Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time!
🚨🚨NOK vent thread. NOKle HEADS GET THE HELL IN HERE. WE NEED TO TALK. 🚨🚨
Ok so, first things first you assholes, I am not a bot. I have been in the fucking game for about seven years now. I don’t typically do posts like this and so this is fucking new to me. Anyways, it seems like a shit ton of you are falling out of favor with NOK. I don’t know what the fuck is wrong with you if you expected to gain a shit ton of money in a day, but what the fuck I have never seen such 🧻🤲🏻 in my fucking life for the past two days. Are you guys really just going to stand there and let the enemy beat the fuck out of us. And of course some of you are going to mention the total float as if that fucking matters because the stock is still cheap as fuck (for now lol 🚀) and because we managed to trade one fucking fifth of all the NOK stocks in circulation. They literally had to stop our asses from buying a couple of times. Just like you autistic retards I have lost thousands of dollars in this shit. My paychecks, birthday money, dividends, money from the sale of blue chips and Ark ETFs, etc. So where’s the upside? Well let me fucking tell you where the upside is and when you can expect to pull off the biggest fucking heist alongside GME and AMC Wall Street will have ever seen. 🔥🚀💸 NOK is well known to be the bigger beast when it comes to the BANG stocks (BB, AMC, NOK, GME). It has a fuck load of shares to go around and there’s a lot of paperhanded pussies out there, so I understand why it may be daunting to expect a Juggernaut like NOK to moon anytime soon. But it doesn’t have to be. NOK releases its earnings on Thursday and its expected to blow the competition out of the fucking water. I wouldn’t even be surprised at all if it were to get a higher price than ERIC in two weeks (hell, possibly by EOW). NOK even plans to merge with top tier companies in the near future due to their prowess in the 5G tech that they’re developing. The 🏳️🌈🐻 have had their big meaty claws ever since its ATH of $62 all those years ago. Do you really expect a change if you don’t fucking BUY and fucking HOLD. No, with a team of fucking retarded superstars in this sub, NOK is prepping for a fierce comeback in the upcoming weeks. GME is top dog right now, but let’s be honest. GME hype can’t last forever (even tho it can for a long time as long as we remain retarded). However being on team NOK makes me feel like I’m on a loosing, shitty ass baseball team and no one is hitting over .100 What’s the plan, Stan? The fucking plan is that you don’t buy market price. You look at the ask price and you fucking buy it. This is how we destroy walls. The $5 barrier battle today was hard fought and we fucking lost to the hedge funds. This next week is going to be fucking spectacular 🪄🚀🤲🏻💎 and I need to know if my fucking NOKle heads are even in it to win it or just downright frauds. You say NOK was a plan by the bots? Take a look at fucking BlackBerry. That shit took the same swerves NOK did that it’s pretty much identical. If NOK is a sham, then the idea of the BANG stocks is a sham. I know for a fucking fact you don’t believe that. I know that there’s dreamers in this sub. I dream just like you. I am trying to build a life just like you guys are. We are in something way bigger than ourselves so if you can for ONCE IN YOUR LIFE consider that maybe that the process is a trustable process then maybe we can win this shit. If NOK hits $50, I will literally buy new fucking silverware (like expensive handmade shit with sterling silver cutlery) and eat my own shit. I don’t give a fuck whether you’d want to see it or not, because honestly boys I’d eat my shit to go to the moon and I am 200% willing to take one for the team. This year, BANG is for real. So hedgefunds, keep your ears out for the NOK NOK sounds on the door. We’re pissed and we’re armed to the teeth. EDIT: General cheese reporting. Post this shit everywhere. I dont give a fuck. I WILL be producing a flank strategy tomorrow. People have to know goddamn it. Monday/Tuesday will close at $7 just give it time The bell doesn’t fucking ring until WSB says it fucking rings. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🥵🥵 EDIT 2: some of you pussies are asking where you can buy NOK. The easiest way to buy it is with that fucking app all the whores on Tinder beg for food money on: Cashapp. There are literally no fucking limits and if you want an extra 2 fucking shares then use this shit when you sign the fuck up and get $10 extra buckaroos: BKXDNGQ. I also want to make it clear that everyone should share their cash apps so that we can get that $10 extra to put into NOK. I’m only doing this for the small wagecucks so if you have the money to do so, then don’t bother. This is just the only thing on the top of my head that would help out in any way List of reasons to buy:
Most essential 5G patents in the world
Fastest 5G speeds recorded
Controls over 27% of the 4/5G market
First company contracted to set up internet on the moon (NASA)
Will receive MULTI-BILLION dollar settlements from ongoing litigations with Mercedes Benz and Lenovo
Technology provider and main collaborator of the National Security Center of Excellence 5G Cybersecurity Project (Federal 5G project)
Selected to be the main collaborator of the Hexa 6G European Union Project
Has pending Department of Defense contracts yet to awarded
Just sealed a contract with TMOBILE for US 5G roll out.
Has and will take market share from Huawei, already has secured multi-year deals with important Chinese companies
Blackrock increased their position to 333,000,000 shares during 2020, an increase of 21 million shares held from the year before (7% increase)
May also be getting back into the phone business as they are manufacturing phones in India
Vanguard Capital owns 160,000,000 shares and is continuously buying
Google Cloud announced a partnership with $NOK to Accelerate Cloud-Native 5G Readiness for Communications Providers
AMD DD / Stock Analysis 🚀🚀🚀 [Technical, Fundamental & DCF] & $AMD Stock Forecast [Short & Long Term]🚀🚀🚀
In this post we are going to go through an in-depth analysis of AMD🚀, we are going to take a look at their fundamental value, their DCF, do a little technical analysis and set some price targets for the near future and for the long term ~Very Long Post~ Hello everyone! Let’s start by talking a little about AMD, they are one of the biggest semiconductor companies in the world, and they operate in multiple segments like Computing, Gaming, Enterprise, Semi-Custom and many more with some of the most important products for the company being microprocessors and GPUs both for personal use like (gaming consoles & PCs) while also offering products for professional use like data centers. The company was founded more than 50 years ago and have more than 11K employees, with the company overperforming recently as they have seen a more than 80% rise in the last year. So, guys, let’s go a little through the 4th quarter & yearly results for AMD. The company reported a revenue of $3.24B in the 4th quarter, with a 53% growth since last year, while for the full year they earned almost $10B as they more than doubled they quarterly and full year net income, which resulted in a $1.29 earnings/share for the year. The company has 2 major income segments in Computing & Graphics which brought in sales of over $6.4B for the year and an operating income of $1.26B and the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment which brought in $3.3B in revenues and almost $400M in operating income. They also provide an additional segment that doesn’t bring in any revenues but which represents costs that can’t be associated with any of the other 2 segments, but also includes stock-based compensations and acquisitions related costs. Both of these 2 segments have seen huge increases in the past year with operating income doubling for the computing & graphics segment and increasing by almost 50% for the EEC segment.🚀🚀 AMD didn’t have such a big capital expenditure in 2020, with only $294M but this can increase depending on the demand of their products while they also adjusted their income with $312M in depreciation & amortizations. Both of these numbers have increased by 40 to 50% in the past years and will be important in the DCF valuation. They have also managed to increase the gross profit margin to 45%, up 2% from 2019 as their earnings before interest & tax or EBIT stood at $1.37B. The company has seen a continued earnings per share growth overall, despite the first 2 quarters of 2020 coming in lower than previous, but that was to be expected as this was impacted by the reduced revenues in Q1 & Q2 before things started to pick up back again, as they finished with a huge increase overall in the 4th quarter.🚀🚀 Their product portfolio has become a great challenge to Intel’s market share and is continuing to evolve, as Intel is still struggling to regain momentum with their products.🚀 AMD announced the world’s best processors for laptop and an enterprise variant that is expected to be available in the first half of 2021. They have also launched the fastest AMD gaming graphics card ever while also working with big companies like Amazon on their AWS cloud offerings & Microsoft Azure which are planning to use their upcoming 3rd generation EPYC processors. AMD is also involved in supercomputers which indicates that they are continuing to innovate and develop products that will be in high demand for the foreseeable future🚀 The one big thing that can propel AMD even more in the future is the proposed acquisition or more rather merger with Xilinx 🚀, which also beat earnings expectations the other day, with revenues of over $800M for the quarter and a Free Cash Flow of 44% of their revenues. Xilinx has a market cap of over $32B, and the combination of the 2 companies would create synergies. They are targeting an all-stock transaction which will have implications on my projections, but as time has gone, the $35B price tag is only a 10% premium for Xilinx. The one hurdle the companies have to pass is the regulatory procedures. We will have to wait and see if the deal goes through or not, as it’s expected the deal should be finished by the end of the year, with AMD shareholders retaining 74% of the new group shares and Xilinx holding the remaining 26%. AMD also offered great guidance for 2021 as they expect the strength of their product portfolio to push AMD revenues up 37% over 2020 and also expect their gross margin to increase to 47%, while they expect an effective tax rate for next year of 15%, well belove the 21% US corporate tax rate. I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates and expectations. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research and so on… So, let’s start with the Unleveraged discounted free cash flow projections to see what the current valuation of the company is.🚀🚀🚀 I used their total revenues projections that we will discuss later on in the long-term projection and the net income for 2020 to which I added back the Depreciation & Amortization costs they had in 2020 and got to a $1.68B EBITDA. For the next years I used 1% increase in EBIT margin which I think they can achieve pretty easy and an increase in capex of 10%/year in order to maintain an increased production capacity while also applying a 15% decrease in their net working capital. So, for an 8% discount rate, which is pretty much the Average SP500 return, we get a $9.7B Discounted Free Cash Flow by 2025. Now there are 2 methods of doing the valuation, either the perpetuity method or the EBITDA multiple method, but for both of them we do have to subtract or add the net assets or debt, which in this case stands $5.75B in assets. I personally think a use of the average is better suited for most companies, though some of the companies trade largely on the EBITDA approach and other on the growth approach. If we use the growth approach, we can see that AMD is pretty fairly valued right now, as this implies a loss of 2%, while on the other hand the EBITDA multiple approach gives us a valuation of over $112, meaning an almost 30% undervaluation of the company. But as I said, I think a use of the average is best, so, my current price target for AMD in 2021 is $98.82, implying a 13.5% return from the last price. And now let’s move on to a longer-term valuation of the company based on the growth projections I have for AMD.🚀🚀🚀 For my projections I actually just used their full year results and implied different growth rates for each revenue stream. I think we can continue to see 50% growth rate in the EEC segment for 2021 and then implying a gradual slowing of their growth, while for the Computing & Graphics segment I implied a 35% growth, way lower than the over 100% they saw in 2020, also implying a gradual slowdown of the trend by 2025. I think these growth implications are pretty reasonable giving the high demand the company has seen for their entire product line, especially as gaming revenues have continued to increase, and also taking into account the need for their products in data centers, cloud usage & digital currency mining. For their cost of sales, I started from the current ones which stand at 80% for the Computing & Graphics segment and implied a 1% improvement each year, while for the EEC segment I started from the 88% expense margin right now and implied a gradual 2% improvement. I also maintained their other expense regarding to the cost of sales to 3% of their total revenues, in-line with the previous years. This means for 2025 we would get just over $33B in revenues and $26B in expenses, resulting in a gross profit of almost $7B. I also maintained the same capex as in the DCF and also substracted the interest & other expenses for which I implied a 5% annual growth, thus leading us to a $6.28B in earnings before tax. I maintained their 15% effective tax rate projections and also diluted their shares by 1% each year accounting for some dilution in the stock. So, for the $5.3B in 2025 revenues after tax and accounting for 1.27B shares, that would mean a $4.21 earnings/share, meaning the stock is trading at 20 times forward price to earnings for 2025. I like to base my future projections on Forward/PE valuations so, with the current projected PE and depending on what PE you assume for the stock between 25 and 40, the stock can trade between $105 and almost $168. 🚀🚀🚀 So, after all these estimates what are my price targets? HERE are my actual price targets🚀🚀🚀 I think the 2025 bear case price we can see AMD trade at is $115 which would imply a return of almost 33% , while my base case and my pretty safe assumption is that AMD will trade at 137$/share by the end of 2025, implying a 57% return on the current price. But my most bullish case would see the company trading at $158, which would imply a return of over 81%. So yeah guys, THIS are my Overall price targets for 2025, my bear case is an average of the 25 & 30 PE ratio, while the normal case is the average between the 30 and 35 PE’s with the most bullish case valuing the company between a PE of 35-40. So HERE is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for AMD by 2025, if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion. I think these are pretty reasonable targets, as the semiconductors industry will keep on booming in the next decade, as the world will need more & more chips that also keep advancing in technology. The company also has very good financials, with almost $9B in assets vs just $3.1B in total liabilities, which can be easily paid by just the current assets. And let’s also take a look at what the estimates are from the analysts. We can only see EPS estimates until 2023 of $3.22, which I think is safe to say can grow an additional dollar by 2025, so my projections are pretty in-line with what other experts anticipate. So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for AMD? Let’s look at this CHART, the stock just broke below the long-term uptrend but has seen good support at the $86-87 levels, which is where the next support should stand. We saw AMD pushing towards $100 in the beginning of the year, but it hit major resistance once Intel also announced a change in their leadership, as they brought in the WMWare CEO Gelsinger, but it’s very hard to see him turn around Intel in a very short time. Intel will need some years & a lot of capital expenditure to turn things around, if they do manage to do it at all. AMD hasn’t been overbought since August, and currently has an RSI near 41, which is pretty oversold for a good company, so I expect to see them regaining some momentum in the near-term, but I guess the market is very busy with the current short-squeezes. AMD will se a lot of resistance breaking through the $100 level, not because of something fundamental with the company, but I guess it’s a psychological resistance rather. And let’s take a quick look at what 24 analysts on Wall Street are saying. They mostly have a buy call on the company with an average price target of $100 and a high price target of $135. So, I think the analyst are pretty spot on with AMD, but my PT are slightly lower as it’s always better to undershoot and overperform rather than the other way around. So, what would I do? Well, I own AMD stock and I believe it still has plenty of room to grow, so I would start building a position right now and add on any weakness, and I would especially buy more if the stock drops even lower than 80$.🚀🚀🚀 One last thing to mention about AMD is that they also have a very big % of their shares held by institutions, with over 74% of the float being held by big funds like Vanguard & Blackrock which does significantly reduce the sell-off possibilities. So, this are my projections and my expectations for the company, I think Lisa SU has done a terrific job since becoming the CEO, and has driven AMD to a renewed approach to their business, as the company has been booming in the past 5 years, growing more than twice as much as Nvidia and crushing the SP500 and Intel’s performance. Thank you everyone for reading🙏 Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time❗
GME - EndGame Part 2: Cohen, Market Cap, Potential Investors
Hello again folks. This is an extension of my DD last week in which I shared some research on short positions, GME’s debt, and some speculation on institutional investing. Since that post, GME is up 75% and there’s been lots of good bullish / bearish DD on the short term. In this post, I’m going to cover 3 topics, focusing on the mid-to-long term prospects for GME: 1) Cohen, 2) GME’s market cap potential, and 3) potential investors that could continue to pile in. TL:DR; You need to think about GME differently. Not as a trader. Not as an investor. You need to think like a venture capitalist. This is an unprecedented opportunity, and the first time I’ve gone all-in - I’m more bullish now than when the stock was trading sub $15. If you’re in GME you need to get in with conviction otherwise you’re going to lose by selling when it drops.
Quick aside - my history and positions:
I’ve been a passive investor for many years. This is literally the first time I’ve taken an interest in becoming an active investor. I opened an RH account in August to start speculating on GME. My first post called out some cheap lottery plays that took my speculating account from $5K - $20K in 3 weeks. I’ve since posted a few times on GME, even trying to tell you to buy the post-earnings dip, and added more to my active trading accounts. I’ve taken $10K -> $130K on RH and $230K -> $480K in IBKR since slowly adding to GME since September. UPDATE: I have deleted my positions in this post - will explain why in my next post. I'm still holding. All that being said, thus far I’ve been thinking about GME as a trade - trying to get in at the lowest cost I could for the maximum upside on a near-term exit, but I’ve switched completely into thinking of GME is a ridiculously asymmetric investment with massive potential in the next 2-3 year timeframe - even at $35. Even at $45, $50, $60. That’s why I added roughly 2500 shares on Friday at around $36 despite adding very cautiously when GME was below $20. I’m also completely all-in on RH with options (mostly deep ITM, a few fds) - $0 buying power left. Grab a drink, sit down. Let me tell you why I’ve gotten more aggressive, and probably why you shouldn’t worry about what price you pay right now, as long as you’re willing to believe and hold.
About Cohen (and friends)
From the recent 8K about the board changes (which you should definitely read if you’re putting serious money in): As part of the Agreement, RC Ventures has agreed tocustomary standstill provisions*, which provide that from the date of the Agreement until the earlier of (a) the date that is 30 calendar days prior to the deadline for the submission of director nominations by stockholders for the Company’s* 2022annual meeting of stockholders and (b) the date that is 120 days prior to the first anniversary of the 2021 Annual Meeting (such period, the “Standstill Period”), RC Ventures willnot, among other things: (i) acquire beneficial ownership in, or aggregate economic exposure to, directly or indirectly, more than 19.9%of the Company’s outstanding common stock; (ii) make any proposal for consideration by stockholders at any annual or special meeting of stockholders of the Company; (iii) make any offer or proposal with respect to any extraordinary transactions; or (iv) seek, alone or in concert with others, the appointment, election or removal of any directors in opposition to any recommendation of the Board, in each case as further described in the Agreement. As part of the Agreement, the Company has permitted RC Ventures to acquire, whether in a single transaction or multiple transactions from time to time, additional shares of the Company’s common stock to the extent such acquisitions would result in RC Ventures having beneficial ownership of less than 20.0% of the outstanding shares, without triggering the restrictions that would otherwise be imposed under Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law (the “DGCL”), and RC Ventures has agreed that upon acquiring beneficial ownership 20.0% or more of the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock, the restrictions under Section 203 of the DGCL would apply to a potential business combination with RC Ventures as an “interested stockholder” (as defined in Section 203 of the DGCL). This is critical: This agreement was the result of a negotiation between Cohen and the existing board.
After his activist letter calling out the board and then 13D buy after the earnings dip rocketed the stock up from 12 -> 20, it was clear to everyone that RC was the reason GME’s stock was heading up. The GME board was afraid of a hostile takeover / losing their jobs. This agreement allowed Cohen and 2 others on the board as long as he didn’t attempt a hostile takeover.
Cohen wants it all. In the activist letter, he publicly said “no” to just one board seat. He then publicly bought more as soon as Sherman threatened a shelf offering to dilute him below 10%.
Alan Attal - the previous COO and CMO of Chewy (2011 - 2018)
Jim Grube - the previous CFO of Chewy (2015 - 2018)
He’s not fucking around folks. He wants to build another Chewy, and he’s bringing the people who helped him do it the first time to do it again. As a result of the agreement, he’s limited to buying up to 20% of shares until 2022. Why not 13%? Simple - Cohen wants the option to buy more. He’s not happy with a single board seat; he’s not going to settle for simply getting added to the board; and he’s not going to settle for 13% ownership. Also, remember that Alan and Jim have 💲 to buy in as well. I haven't seen their holdings yet. Their time is worth more than their money and they've already decided to put their time in.
Cohen is not an exec - he’s a founder with an all-in mentality
“When I find things I have a lot ofconvictionin, I goall-in*.”*
Cohen is a founder that has gone through the successful creation of a startup. When you are startup founder, most of your NW is tied to equity in your company. You are trained to have skin in the game. You’re not allowed to think you have a safety net. You give up years of your life and bet everything because you have to believe in what you’re doing. Founders typically have 30-50% ownership of their company.
“Cohen uses the word “conviction” a lot. He says it’s something he learned from his father, who ran a glassware importing business in Montreal where Cohen grew up. “He taught me how to block the noise from the masses,” says Cohen. “To have a point of view and have conviction and not waver.”
He only sold Chewy rather taking it to IPO because of his Dad’s health. He cut his entrepreneurial career short and he’s itching to get back in.
Cohen sold Chewy for $3.35B, with estimates stating he personally walked away with about $600M after taxes.
Cohen has a lot of capital to buy more. After selling Chewy, he went all-in on Apple & WFC, which as of June was up 40%.
“ Cohen says his portfolio, when including dividends and a few other stock holdings, has returned more than 40% over the past 3 years, beating the market.”
Aapl was his largest holding, andis up another 50% since June 5 when the Bloomberg article was published.
Cohen lives in FL - with no income or capital gains for individuals, unlike other founders who live in CA which taxes all cap gains as ordinary income.
I’m going to estimate his net worth (minus his GME holdings) is around $800M-$1B.
Cohen’s 9,001,000 (it’s over 9000! 🐲🏐) shares have thus far been purchased at something like an average of $12/share, for a total investment of around $110M.
So Cohen has put in $110M out of his $1B into GME. Does that sound like he’s all-in? Absolutely fucking not. Cohen’s going to buy up to the max he can this year (20%), likely by selling some other holdings prior to cap gains tax law changes. He can add more next year after the standstill period is done.
What will lead to Cohen’s next purchase of GME
Thus far, every RC purchase has been about sending a message.
Prior to Q3 earnings, his purchases were signaling an intent to the board that he was serious about wanting to get involved. He also rubbed it in their faces that the stock price was largely appreciating because of him. From the activist letter:
“We recognize that the Board may feel it is insulated from stockholder scrutiny after adding new directors this past spring and seeing a recent stock price uptick (which only came on the heels of RC Ventures filing its 13D)” (what a fucking burn).
If there was any doubt about RC’s impact on the stock price, it was put to rest after Q3’s earnings, where the current leadership’s hubris and threat of diluting RC led to a drop of almost 30%. RC then bought the dip, shoved it in their faces, and the market GME again rocketing GME to 20 in a massive post-earnings recovery. Message sent again - “The market wants me. Let me the fuck in.”
Now that Cohen and the Chewy folks are on the board, he’s going to angle for CEO. He’s not looking to advise GME. He wants to go all-in, to run GME. He’s holding the optionality of buying more based on the success of his attempt to take over GME through non-hostile means.
If you see Cohen buy more GME, he’s sending another message. This time it’s because it’s clear to him he’s going to be CEO and wants to max his skin in the game. If you see Cohen buy, it’s “CEO talks going well” - you fucking buy.
GME’s market cap potential
Cohen sees a $200BN+ total addressable market cap for gaming by 2023. For contrast, Chewy was playing in the pet food/supplies market, which has a total addressable market (TAM) of under $50BN annually. GME’s potential is at base 4x that of Chewy. This does not even account for the pc gaming hardware market, which is another $35BN+.
Chewy’s market cap is $44BN on $6BN of annual revenue.
In other words, even if you give GME’s physical locations no value, GME’s ecommerce business is growing 5x faster than Chewy and already has 75% of online revenue. Summary: Chewy is priced > 7X times its annual total revenue. GME is priced at .45 its annual ecommerce revenue, despite GME having 5-6 greater TAM and growing its ecommerce business 5X as fast Chewy. What. The. Fuck. I’ve never seen a stock more mispriced. People talking about $100 price targets are suffering from a fucking lack of imagination. Even if you completely discount
An asset is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, right? So are the potential buyers of this growing company? Here’s a list in decreasing order of likelihood.
Elon (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar? Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety. Elon could buy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur and aspiring twitter-meme-god would absolutely wreck the game.
If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀
Buffett (More likely, still improbable). I’m actually amazed that while Buffett & co were lamenting that there are no interesting stocks to invest in and moving to cash, that they absolutely missed the boat on GME while it was at its lows. It’s a complete value play right up his alley (in a business he can understand). My only hypothesis here is that the market cap is too small and he could not make a meaningful investment. Once GME grows to a more respectable market cap ($10b+) I can see Buffett stepping in and making an investment.
Cohen’s connections. (Highly likely if Cohen is CEO). This is the big one. And I mean absolutely nail in the coffin re-pricing of GME for the foreseeable future. Go read this Harvard Business Review piece on Cohen specifically on how Cohen puts importance on raising money and the people that backed him.
Look, I’ve started a startup before in the valley (unsuccessfully unfortunately). However, you don’t start a company without making a shit-ton of venture capitalist & angel investor connections. Cohen has stated that when pitching Chewy he was rejected by over 100 investors. I can absolutely-fucking-guarantee you that every single one of them remembers their mistake and would not miss the opportunity to invest in Cohen again. And don’t forget all of the investors who DID invest with Cohen and reaped the benefits with Chewy. While venture capitalists don’t generally make investments in public equities, this is a truly unique situation. Cohen is treating this like a rebirth, a new venture bootstrapped from GME’s bones. If VCs as a firm will not invest, you can bet your ass that those individuals will throw their personal money at Cohen. However this only happens if he’s CEO. As soon as he’s CEO, a single long weekend trip to the valley might mean 100+ investor meetings with the strategic pitch.
My biggest fear here is that VCs/PE band to take the company private at some small multiple (2-3x) and then reap the benefits while Cohen turns the company around only to re-list it to us 5 years down the road at 30X the valuation.
Thus far, it’s been us retail retards vs the wall street shorts. HFs shorting this thing have the advantage in both tactics and capital. However, if Silicon Valley money starts pouring money into this the game is over. You cannot believe the amount of money that gets thrown into startups with 90% of it burning up into thin air. $3B market cap? That’s nothing. Folks with Silicon Valley money & risk tolerance would have no problem betting on a serial entrepreneur making something amazing out of a company that already has a customer base, revenue, distribution - all in the same business (e-commerce) the entrepreneur already proved themselves in.
You, and every other retard that believes. Look, this was my point at the beginning. You need to think like a VC here. VCs are the ultimate YOLO autists making million dollar bets and not seeing a penny of it for years. They are the ultimate 💎✋🤚. You need to decide if you have conviction for the long term and then buy in. 💎✋🤚 doesn’t mean selling at $100. It doesn’t means selling at $200. It means not selling at all this year no matter the price, and at least until you learn for sure whether Cohen is the new CEO. It means believing so hard that you 20-100X your investment in 2 years when the market wakes up to the ridiculous mispricing.
Remember that if Cohen is elected CEO he can (and likely will) buy more than a 20% stake in 2022.
I’ve put every dollar I can into shares in IBKR, minus some April calls. I hold no covered calls except for some call spreads I had in RH prior to recent bump. I have April calls because I will put more cash into GME after taxes are done, and I know much cash I have to use. Calls let me cap the price I would have to pay now. This is personal research. Do your own DD. A wiser investor than me gave the advice of “Don’t aim to maximise profit, minimize regret.” If you’re not in GME yet, ask yourself how you would truly feel if what everyone here is saying panned out to be true, and you weren’t participating. Oh, and of course: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Update 1: I'm still holding today, but I realized I made a pretty big mistake on the ecommerce revenue analysis. GME's 2019 e-commerce revenue was 1.35B (not 1.35B for the quarter), so divide my price target by 4 - $125/share or $8B market cap.
Talon Metals $TLOFF is very likely to go 10x, and soon.
I want to preface this DD by stating I’ve only began to invest seriously in the past two years. I’m a novice by any standard and am typically VERY risk adverse. I’ve only dabbled in penny stocks during the last half year or so, and when I have, I’ve been reluctant to invest any remotely significant portion of my portfolio into any one particular stock. I’m not recommending anyone do what I do and I’m definitely not a financial advisor. But having said that, Talon Metals (TLOFF) is the exception to all my investing rules. It’s a game changer and here’s why: I have family in Duluth, Minnesota. My brother-in-law has been in the mining industry his entire life. Talon Metals is on track to be the top nickel producing company in North America and it also happens to be located in central Minnesota. I knew nothing about mining or mining companies before diving into this, but he’s been working in the industry for 19 years. He’s worked and lived in both Canada and the US because of his career in the mining industry. I’m really not sure if this type of information is allowed here but I happened to randomly speak with him yesterday before the Super Bowl and following our conversation, I’ve never in my life been more excited about any one stock, or opportunity for that matter, after hearing what he had to say. All I will say (and all I believe I’m allowed to say here) is he is (1) very familiar with Talon Metals, (2) the EV craze for nickel is very real, and (3) Talon Metals is indeed on Tesla’s radar, and is absolutely in the running to get a long term contract for RESPONSIBLE nickel mining, along with one other domestic contender. He was emphatic that not only will this will happen before 2021 is over, but also that the contract will indeed be with a DOMESTIC nickel producer because of Tesla’s supply chain goals and because of the impending subsidies that are going to be granted by Biden, given to domestic, AMERICAN metal mining companies adjunct to the EV industry. This is the same reason Tesla has already begun exploring their own lithium mining operations in Nevada. Nickel, however, is an different entirely beast and cannot by extracted easily from clay sites like the one Tesla just purchased in Nevada. Nickel extraction is far more labor intensive and Tesla frankly doesn’t have a choice but to contract mining companies to unearth this metal. Before going further, I do not claim to be aware of any existing contract/agreement between Tesla/any other EV company and Talon Metals. I proceeded to grill him on what he was telling me and made him clarify over and over. Floored, I’ve been researching non-stop for nearly 24 hours straight about anything I can on Talon Metals and it’s major competitors, and any insight I can gather into upcoming EV manufacturer contracts. My brother-in-law’s knowledge of the situation lines up almost too perfectly after reading everything I’ve read in the last 24 hours. Check it out: Tesla will be making all their battery cathodes going forward without ANY cobalt whatsoever. In fact, Tesla has gone on record to rule out cobalt from its batteries going forward. This means a HUGE increased demand for nickel. Again, my brother-in-law is already seeing this firsthand in his industry. All the domestic mining industry can talk about is lithium and nickel, apparently. In his words “it’s becoming the new gold”. Cobalt is considered the “blood diamond” of metal mining. Cobalt is also the most expensive metal element in EV batteries. Nickel is cheaper and safer than cobalt and comes with far fewer environmental repercussions. Going cobalt-free and moving to nickel-based cathodes will be THE vital step in Tesla’s goal to make the $25,000 EV ubiquitous. Nickel ore is absolutely essential and Elon knows it, which is why he’s pleaded on record via Twitter stating - “... Go for efficiency, obviously environmentally-friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time, if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way.” Nickel is not only the future of Tesla’s batteries, it’s the future of every EV maker’s battery cathodes. Tesla doesn’t just want a green car, they have become obsessed with the “cleanness” of the manufacturing aspect of the car itself. It is almost a forgone conclusion that every single other manufacturer of EVs, large and small, are going to follow suit with eliminating expensive, inefficient cobalt and replacing it entirely with nickel. To the next point and my single biggest questions - aren’t there larger mining companies that exist that can dwarf the amount of nickel mid-size mining companies can produce? And why is Talon Metals purportedly the golden child of all the domestic nickel mining companies? Here’s the answer. Tesla has held off awarding any contract because they are apparently vetting every mid-size and large nickel mining company with extreme scrutiny. Again, something my brother-in-law has told me he’s witnessed firsthand recently to a greater extent than he’s ever seen in his nearly two decades in the industry. Talon Metals has a proprietary nickel extraction method - arguably the cleanest in the world. They’ve literally coined the buzzwords “green nickel”. Talon Metals is the only domestic mining company the creates solar energy fields from former mining sites. Talon Metals is also the ONLY major nickel producer in North America that is actively attempting to make its entire mining operation carbon-neutral, including transitioning to its own on-site EVs. Better yet, geological testing at their main Tamarack mining site in Minnesota has revealed that it is indeed one of THE MOST high-quality nickel dense sites in the world rivaled only by the nickel mining industry in Indonesia (which currently has a nickel ore export ban). Most nickel sulphide mining projects are around .9% - 1.1%. Low-grade nickel sulphide mining projects are about .2%. Talon Metals Tamarack nickel sulphide deposit has averaged 1.8% - 2.1%! It may not sound like much, but it is extremely significant. Nickel sulphide deposits like the one at Tamarack are EXTREMELY few and far between worldwide. For this reason alone Talon Metals can provide high quality nickel at the lowest possible cost out of any single company in North America. It’s not even close. Talon Metals’ Tamarack mine is also only ONE OF TWO large-scale, high grade nickel operations in the US, the other being Eagle Mine in Michigan, which is purportedly going to be mined-out by 2025 (cease mining nickel altogether). This will leave Talon Metals as not only the sole, major high-grade nickel operation in the US, but also the greenest in the world. Unlike the trajectory of lithium recycling operations, nickel recycling operations do not and will not come anywhere close to meeting the current demand by EV companies for many years. It’ll be decades until that’s the case and until then, nickel mining is absolutely crucial to the EV world. Even with all that good news I saved the very best for last. From my understanding, here is the biggest reason Talon Metals is THE front runner for a massive nickel contract from Tesla and other EV companies: Talon has created their own proprietary hydromet process. What this means is, they have a created a process where nickel is minded and transformed into battery form ON-SITE! This means no smelting. It also means significantly lower cost and skipping transportation of the mined nickel multiple times across different continents before the nickel returns to the USA in a battery component called a cathode. Talon Metals has created the ONLY process in the world where the nickel goes from the mine to the battery in one place. From the CEO of Talon Metals, here’s what he said recently in an interview - “Talon is looking to raise the bar on how mining is done. By going directly from mine to battery we believe that we can play a vital role in a fully integrated domestic battery supply chain, rather than shipping the product around the globe multiple times for processing.” When the Talon Metals CEO was asked to comment about an impending partnership with Tesla he DID NOT flat out deny it. As leader of a publicly traded company he is required to explicitly deny claims of this type if he knows them to be false. Instead, he simply said he’d rather not comment at this time. Other huge mining companies are messing up, BADLY. Vale mining has had terrible publicity recently due to their horrific Brazilian mining accident where 270 people died because of sheer negligence. Also, not domestic nickel. Norilsk nickel mining in Russia might be the single largest nickel mining operation in the world, and possibly the single most environmentally UNFRIENDLY. Their stock has suffered because of it. They face billions of dollars in fines for egregious environmental violations and have completely polluted the largest river in the Taymyr area of Russia, infuriating the indigenous Taymyr people and causing massive protests throughout much of Northern Russia. And again, not domestic. Indonesia produces more nickel than anyone in the world but they currently have an export ban, and further, they’ve also begun terribly polluting the surrounding ocean as a consequence of increased nickel demand. Indonesia is actually probably the worst offender out of all three major nickel mining operations, even worse than Brazil and Russia. Tesla is also actively trying to eliminate Indonesian nickel from their future supply chain due the country’s environmentally unfriendly regard towards the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Maybe most importantly, Tesla has already shown their willingness to partner with relatively smaller, DOMESTIC metal mining operations. If you recall, Tesla signed a 5 year agreement with Piedmont Lithium based in North Carolina just recently in September of 2020. This was only 4-5 months ago! The Piedmont Lithium mine in North Carolina is still under development. They are an emerging lithium mining company still in its infancy who, I believe, had zero customers prior to Tesla. I don’t believe Piedmont Lithium has even begun extracting lithium and it seems they’ve only completed requisite geologic and feasibility studies. Talon Metals is arguably far, FAR more established. Before the Tesla agreement, Piedmont Lithium was trading at about $6 a share. Now it’s at about $60 a share. 10X in five months, still skyrocketing. Tesla entering a long term agreement with Vale, Norilsk or an Indonesian supplier goes against literally everything Tesla is trying to create, and a partnership, although possible, is highly, highly unlikely. They want environmentally sensitive green nickel extraction, they want to optimize their supply chain and they’d prefer a domestic source. Talon Metals is all of these things and by far the most likely choice. The foreign existing nickel mining operations are none of these things. Talon Metals will not only be the first major domestic nickel deal Tesla does, very similar to the Piedmont Lithium deal they did in September of 2020, but Talon Metals will be THE major green nickel producer of the world within a few years. Tesla has already begun its own lithium mining explorations in Nevada and STILL needed another domestic source in Piedmont Lithium. Tesla does not and will not mine for nickel, arguably the single most important metal in its battery. Take all this for whatever it’s worth. Like the stock. Don’t like the stock. Up to you. I am very, very long on TLOFF. This subreddit has been an extremely good source of penny stock info and I’m grateful to its members, big time. THIS is where I come for 90% of my penny stock sentiment. Of course I’ll research thoroughly from here before pulling the trigger and truly, I pass on a lot of what I read here, but my total return from investing in penny stocks recommended here is, as a percentage, significantly higher than my total return from investing in more traditional NYSE and Nasdaq stocks. And again, for that, I’m very grateful to this subreddit. I doubt I’ll post about other pennies in the future that I think are going to take off because frankly, I don’t know enough and don’t want to mislead people... but if there was ever one stock I was extremely confident recommending, it’s Talon Metals $TLOFF. I truly wish you guys the very best of luck with all your future investments! Thanks for reading. I think I’m required to do this, so for transparency, I own 41,200 shares of $TLOFF at an average of price of $0.46. Single biggest investment in my portfolio. EDIT: I’m really new to making DDs and didn’t realize links to my sources were expected. I’ve heard it a few times now. My apologies. I don’t really plan on making a habit of doing DDs or recommending stocks in general. I just happened to get some incredible insight into this company’s near term expectations and figured I’d share it with the community that’s been the single biggest positive contributor to my own personal investing.
DDDD - Why GME Might 🚀🌝 Next Week, and How It Could Trigger a Financial Crisis
In today's edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD), we’ll be going over over the details about what happened this week with GME, the drama around Robinhood and other brokers, and take a close look at some data to determine whether or not GME and other various meme / high SI stocks such as AMC, BBBY, FIZZ, LGND, and BB will continue 🚀🚀🚀in its short squeeze this week, and how this all could lead to widespread stock market crash and financial crisis. But first, something to cover my ass for the SEC investigators combing through this Subreddit Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion and for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up and with some satire thrown in. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
What Exactly Happened at Robinhood This Week?
There has been plenty of speculation this week about what exactly went down and unverified (although reasonable) rumors on why Robinhood did this. I’ll go over the top two theories before taking a deep dive into the “official” reason given by Robinhood. Pressure from the White House and Sequoia according to a Robinhood employee This statement has been refuted by Sequoia. I personally wouldn’t believe the Sequoia part since I don’t really know what they would gain from it - they’re a Venture Capital firm, not a hedge fund, and would not be actively shorting stocks let alone be trading in stocks. It could be possible that the White House, or someone from the government did contact Robinhood - actually, I’d be pretty shocked if no one called them at some point this week to ask wtf was going on.During this call, they may have been afraid that GameStop’s short squeeze would have triggered a major financial crisis due to hedge funds collapsing and de-grossing, causing a mass selloff similar to what was seen in 2008 and in March 2020 - I’ll talk more about this later. Basically, without Robinhood shutting down GME from being bought, it’s actually very possible we would have seen the rest of the stock market collapse last week, and this was something the Biden administration was trying to make sure didn’t happen in the first month in office. Possible intervention from Citadel Securities This was a theory I personally believed in initially and would have been a very obvious area of scrutiny for many people. The most straightforward one being the fact that Citadel (the hedge fund) dumped a few billion into Melvin to bail it out a few days ago, who were the very well known shorts of GME. Citadel, the hedge fund, is owned by Citadel LLC, which happens to also run Citadel Securities - a market maker. If you don’t know what this is, go grow a few brain wrinkles and read my previous post about this. Citadel Securities is effectively Robinhood’s sugar daddy, directly being responsible for around 40% of their revenue in 2018 through their payment for order flow (i.e. selling your trades to Citadel, giving them the right of first refusal, and potentially giving you a worse price; this is how they get 0% commission trades btw). Theoretically, Citadel the hedge fund and Citadel the market maker is run independently and sister companies both owned by Citadel LLC, but anyone can see this being a potential conflict of interest. There’s also a possibility that Citadel Securities losing billions of dollars being short so many GME calls (they write 99% of all options contracts) and probably not being perfectly Gamma and (especially) Vega hedged, so when those two greeks skyrocketed on GME they probably lost tons of money there. According to WSB hero Chamath, he didn’t invest in Robinhood when they came to him on multiple occasions because he thought the founders lacked integrity, implying he believes they might have been the type of people to sell out their users (granted, they already literally do this) and do this type of shit. The Official Reason - Clearing House Limitations Let’s get to the official reason put out by Robinhood, which is that their clearing house, in this case the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp, suddenly increased their collateral requirements on GME trades drastically. Apparently, Robinhood is running out of cash, so they weren’t able to provide the cash collateral demanded by DTCC, and hence weren’t able to trade through them. Let’s dumb this down and talk about how brokerages work. Let’s talk about what a clearing house is and how they work. Imagine Bob wants to sell Dylan a share of GME. There’s a bunch of legal paperwork and logistics for actually transferring over the share, which can take a few days to finalize - this is called settlement. However, you don’t want people being able to back out of this exchange during this process for obvious reasons, so that’s where the clearing house comes in. Let’s call this clearing house Mary. What Mary does is facilitate (clear) this exchange, and ensures both Bob and Dylan follow through with their trade by having them both immediately give Mary cash as collateral while the exchange settles. If one party was no longer able to meet their end of the exchange (eg. Dylan goes bankrupt), Mary acts as an insurer and is responsible for buying the share from Bob instead. If it turned out that Bob was lying about actually owning a share and can't transfer it over to Dylan in time (failure to deliver), Mary is responsible for finding that share for him instead. Since GME suddenly became very volatile, and the financial soundness of some parties and their ability to deliver their side of the trade have been suddenly called into question (at least on the seller’s side), DTCC decided (...or due to pressure from other sources?) to increase the collateral needed for buying GME to be more than 10x of the proportion of the market value of whatever it was before. Most brokerages reacted to this by disabling margin trading. For some reason, Robinhood went one step further and disabled trading for all accounts, possibly due to their relatively small cash reserves compared to places like Fidelity, and the relatively large number of users who use margin in the platform.
What’s Robinhood Going To Do About GME?
Robinhood’s decision to stop purchases of GME basically got hate from literally everyone, to the point where it somehow united the country in a beautiful way. Here’s a list of things that happened as a result of Robinhood’s decision, for fun
Clearly, this decision has single-handedly made Robinhood the most hated company in the world right now. It’s especially bad given the optics - their mission is to literally “democratize finance”, with the idea of empowering individual retail investors to be on the same level of institutions. This decision, whether intentional or not, has literally gone against everything about Robinhood’s image and mission, and will end the company if not fixed soon. All of this right as Robinhood is planning to launch their IPO. The people in charge of Robinhood likely know all of this and are doing everything they can to find cash and liquidity to put up the collateral needed to resume GME trading. So far we’ve seen them raise $1B from investors and $500M through lines of credit overnight, although based on the fact that GME is still restricted, that doesn’t seem to be enough. However, in my personal opinion, I think it's likely that Robinhood is doing everything they can to find more money given the situation, and once they do, they will likely re-enable trading on GME. If that happens (which IMO will probably be some time next week), GME and all other high-SI stocks will absolutely 🚀🌝**.**
How GME Almost Caused (and Still Can Cause) a Stock Market Crash
Let’s go over something else interesting that went on as a result of the GME short squeeze - the fact that it started to affect the stock market overall. In fact, the stock market had the largest decline since October across all sectors on Wednesday when GME, AMC, and other high-SI stocks surged, with a very sharp recovery as the meme stocks fell after Robinhood suspending purchases; this was one of the biggest de-grossing of hedge funds in history. Chamath wrote a great Twitter thread about this, so amazing that I’ll just copy-paste his tweets rather than try to explain it better myself.
A children's book explanation of what's happening: 1. If you are "smart money" you are allowed to take your $1 and leverage it up to $15+ 2. You can now buy $15 of stock AND if you promise to short companies, you can short $15 of stock as well 3. In finance language, this means that you are $30 "gross" ($15 of longs + $15 of shorts) but $0 net (+$15 of longs -$15 of shorts). This makes everyone feel good because it feels like you are taking zero risk...but in reality, your $1 is exposed to $30 of risk. 4. Now you go around and tell your friends about both your longs and your shorts and when you do it at a restaurant vs on Reddit, its called an "ideas dinner". 5. You also publish your longs on a quarterly lag via an SEC rule. You don't have to tell anyone about your shorts. 6. Now the less cool people who weren't invited to the ideas dinners, start copying your longs based on your report. 7. You realize that publicizing your shorts is also a good idea so instead of only selling stocks, you also BUY options (puts) which has to be reported. 8. Now everyone can see both your longs and your shorts and if you have a hot hand, you can likely predict that the cool people from the dinner as well as the less cool people monitoring your filings will copy you. 9. But then an outsider notices that the math is way off! 10. Apparently, some of these shorts that you own represent more than 100% of the entire stock of the company. Huh? 11. So he grabs his chicken fingers and champagne and buys, starts a massive short squeeze. 12. Other's see what's happening and they jump in. 13. Now a massive short squeeze starts. You have to cover your shorts ASAP. But the banks also notice that you don't have enough credit to cover the $30 they lent you and ask for more collateral. You now also have to sell your long positions. 14. What happens next is that a cascade of short covering and long selling starts driving some stocks to the moon and others way down. Which stocks went up? Basically the ones that were the most heavily shorted by you and your buddies in the first place.
Hedge fund grossing / de-grossing In other words, as stocks like GME go up, the highly-leveraged hedge funds that are shorting these stocks are forced to sell their longs as they cover their shorts. Most retail investors are limited to 2x leverage, but since hedge funds are “hedged” by taking short and long positions, they can be up to 30x levered since theoretically they would be shielded from external events that cause all stocks to go up or down in price (i.e. Beta neutral), so they’re “safer”. To get out of these short positions, they will need to massively unwind their long positions as well so they can still have a reasonable “Net Exposure”, triggering a sell-off in those stocks. A very similar thing actually happened in March (with risk-parity) causing hedge funds to similarly massively de-gross, and literally everything from GLD to even AMZN’s stock price dropping as a result, even though theoretically COVID-19 would’ve been good for both from a fundamental basis, as we saw later on. It’s very likely that if Robinhood hadn’t stopped purchases of GME, many more hedge funds shorts would have had their shorts blow up and be forced to continue to de-gross causing a widespread stock market crash, potentially being the catalyst for finally popping the decade-long liquidity (leverage)-fueled asset bubble we’ve been experiencing. In fact, this could still happen since it doesn’t look like hedge funds have learned their lesson and are still heavily short GME with Net Shares Shorts barely moving this weekaccording to S3 Partners. Furthermore, despite seeing the largest de-grossing of hedge funds since 2009, gross exposure (aka leverage) of hedge funds still remainsclose to record-high levels. TLDR In case your attention span was too short to read everything above,
Robinhood is going to be doing everything they can to raise cash to resume GME purchases, when this happen GME 🚀🌝
Much of the stock market’s value is held by over-leveraged hedge funds, so if GME (and other common shorts) 🚀🌝 the rest of the stock market might collapse around it (EDIT - as hedge funds re-consider their long / short strategy), triggering a financial crisis
Now, just to be clear, buying GME right now is joining a game of hot potato; the longer you hold the potato the more tendies you get to eat for dinner, but at some point this will all blow up and when it does someone will be the bagholder - and right now everyone is rooting for these bagholders to be the hedge funds that are short GME. That being said, with Short Interest barely moving this week, this day of reckoning doesn’t look like it’ll be coming in the next few days and for reasons mentioned above, it’s probably more likely for GME to reach $1K next week than the probability that it’ll fall below $100. Or in other words, I like these stocks. EDIT - Appearently S3 Partners just contradicted their tweet on Friday and now indicate that shares short of GME have dipped below 30M shares. Still highly shorted compared to most other stocks, fwiw. EDIT2 - Getting alot of questions on how one short position in a small cap can do this, and my answer is that GME alone wouldn't cause a financial crisis, but rather what GME represents, which is disproving that hedge funds that a long / short strategy (i.e. taking out additional leverage to short similar companies they long) is unviable; The word from my hedge fund friends is that this type of thing would have been considered a six-sigma event, or one in a billion chance of happening; which is obviously no longer true. Hedge funds seeing Melvin go down will probably start re-consider their short books. This on mass will cause a mass short-covering and also sell-off of their longs. Hedge funds levering up using cheap money has been the basis of the stock market's rise the past year - how do you think money magically goes from Powell's money printer to the stock market?
"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)
I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to. Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547 I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can. I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts. Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T
Intro
"The last month has convinced me, that we are going to be heading into a dark place for Counter-Strike esports in 2021."
"I think I've seen the scene essentially kill itself."
"For the past 5 to 6 years, we've basically been in a holding pattern of people coming into our game wanting to run it, wanting to run all of the esports and wanting to profiteer and its been sort of a concerted effort to drive them off and push them away."
"We're spread way too thin."
"If Riot don't get involved and stop the scumbags that have moved over to Valorant from getting their feet under the table, Valorant is going to have real problems."
RL thinks too much has happened all at once for us to do anything except watch it play out, like:
Recent CSPPA strike against BLAST
ESIC failures and them not being supported enough
Teams cheating i.e. coaches/bugs
Widespread match fixing
The Pandemic
"People who try to hold bubble events are so incompetent and fuck up and people get the 'rona and its their fault."
"People who say Flashpoint is a bubble is full of shit and is a lie and people are now suffering for that lie."
"To save money they let people go home and break the bubble for a week."
"Not just Flashpoint peoples decision, they have a partner that handles the production." (hinting FACEIT)
"People are trapped in hotels essentially under house arrest because of COVID restrictions and has fucked peoples lives up."
"It's all too much, all of this incompetence, all of this greed, maybe we ride it out."
RL says he has talked to the Riot devs (the ones working on Valorant) and says, "They are so cognizant of all the fuck ups and all the problems we have in Counter-Strike."
He continues to say that this is factored into their business plan and that we never had a competitor, but just so happens to have one coincide, when we are at our worst.
CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association
"Who does this union really fucking serve?"
RL believes that the CSPPA is a mockery.
He points out the hypocrisy that they wouldn't strike for the pros who were kicked out of ESL Pro League, or for Jamppi or dream3r.
He also says ESL paid CSPPA and are racketeering and many other TOs have to pay them to get their "seal of approval"
He says they would strong-arm TOs saying "well if you don't give us the money, these guys are so we'll just have to commit to playing their event."
Also points out that they will strike against a competitor they are not in agreement with (Flashpoint)
RL: "It's what it says about every other time you haven't done it and it's about every time you don't do it now moving forward." "The issues they've chosen to ignore this year alone are embarrassing."
Then he points out that there was no strike for Valve qualifiers even if we have no major but Jamppi and dream3r can't play in them.
"and Valve have said 'Oh yeah we know actually their stories are accurate, Jamppi didn't cheat, now in a legally binding document. Yep dream3r did have his account hacked in a LAN café', but they still can't play. Where is the fucking solidarity? Gone. Doesn't exist. It's not important [because] it doesn't affect you." "That's what the union does right now, it looks after all the tier 1 people."
He says the CSPPA doesn't represent all players all the time and has driven a divide where you have the haves and have-nots
"We have a tier of players that operate with impunity and do not help their tier 2 or tier 3 players out at all." "If you are not a tier 1 player you do not matter, they don't event ask your opinion."
He tells chrisJ to admit and own the fact that the reason he didn't speak up during the ESL Pro League debacle is because it didn't affect him
"They are looking after some players at the expense of other players. How the fuck is that a union?"
He says the BLAST situation is a reasonable dispute and supports the players but is not the right time for a strike and have not even identified the correct enemy
He thinks players are lashing out now due to previous incidents and are upset that BLAST are working with ESIC
He stated that CSPPA shouldn't beefing with ESIC and they should be working in harmony
He says what they need to do is talk with the teams/organizations that have sold that right to BLAST
RL: "Your employers, the people who pay you that massive exorbitant salaries, when you don't stream and you don't do interviews and you offer no value beyond your ability to click heads and you get 25k dollars a month." "Why don't you talk to them about it? Oh right. You're happy to take away BLAST's paper, but you don't want to risk your own."
"I am seeing such unbelievable cowardice from the players here with the battles you choose."
"Where was the strike action when in the qualifiers for the world championship, there were teams and players engaged in huge conflicts of interest?" "Where was the strike action when your image rights were taken and sold to every league you've ever been in every union type organization you've ever been associated with like, WESA, to your org every time you sign a contract, to the leagues you play in."
"Your image rights are essentially worthless now, there's about 10 fucking separate parties that have them, and how many of them are giving you anything for it? Not much pretty much your org by the way."
"That's a big issue. Your image is you, your image is your brand. What are you doing about that? Nothing."
He is also angry at SirScoots who is "popping off" at people on Twitter who all want the same thing, which is 'A unified Counter-Strike scene for everybody, that works for everybody, that has a sustained ecosystem that nourishes everybody.' "We don't have that now."
He also says their rankings are a joke
"Just so happened, oh look TACO, that very important prominent member of the board, we pushed his team artificially up when they weren't even in the fucking top 20, not by a long shot."
He also says the ineptitude of the CSPPA cost Flashpoint a monitor sponsor
"Is it really a player association or is it like a fucking agency at this point"
ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission
"They have been put in an impossible position."
RL says that Ian Smith, the founder of ESIC and who was done work in mainstream sports, is a good and honorable man who has dedicated his life to integrity and sports. He takes on both sides, ensuring match fixers are punished, but also doing appeals and ensuring those punishments were fair.
"ESIC is a tiny organization" and are in need of money, "They didn't run a grift like the CSPPA did."
"Saying 'you want our support and you want the players to turn up you better pay us.' They don't do that."
"Had startup seed money from MTG and since then they've been pecking shit with the hens."
Ian Smith made sure that the money given by MTG (Modern Times Group, parent company of ESL, ESEA, DreamHack) was nothing more than startup money and wouldn't be in debt to them
Ian Smith sat down with other TO's not part of MTG and wanted to partner with them. They declined and called ESIC "ESL spies and we will never align ourselves with you"
"They only were just able to afford, hiring a PR guy on a full time salary to deal with the press and send out those releases you've seen, this year."
"They have a tiny group of staff investigating these things and they have taken on the biggest problems in our scene: the cheating, the match fixing."
ESIC have had "unprecedented levels of cheating to deal with, because there's something wrong with our scene ever since we went online. There's something wrong with it, everyone's lost their fucking pride and self-respect and they got no passion for it anymore, so they think fuck it, what's in it for me?"
He calls out coaches who are talking about players rights when they would rob and steal from them.
Also says more coaches being banned are coming
He also points out flaws in community's reaction to the punishments to coaches bans: "Half of the cunts still have jobs and some of the cunts got new jobs. We didn't even shun the cheating coaches."
ESIC have "found I think another 2 or 3 exploits like that one and they are investigating them all right now, it's going on right now."
"I know that there are going to be more names getting banned, again."
"So they're doing that on a skeleton crew while, investigating 3 continents worth of match fixing in MDL and semi-pro level CS." "They're doing this with half a dozen people." "They don't have any money or any help. People barely even fucking cooperate with them, they are treated like pariahs. It's ridiculous."
"Why are the CSPPA popping off at ESIC on my Twitter timeline, when you should be working together." "because its all about what's in it in for me." "2020, the online era of CS: 'What is in it for me?' How can I cheat, how can I get my paper, how can I bleed this scene one last time before I fuck off and play shooty shooty bang bang Riot Games babys first fps."
RL says that in the CIS region, teams have gone to tournaments and have been eliminated multiple times by the same team. We found out they were cheating and those players who lost, have been cut from their roster, careers ended because of cheaters.
Stream Sniping
"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"
RL talks about how there is no integrity from dead (the player), always denying when caught doing something
On the topic of 'BLAST never said we couldn't stream snipe': "Lies, BLAST never said you could do that, they had to sort of retcon it." "because what happened after that they fucking started snitching and squealing"
"Suddenly you had like, 10 of the top 15 teams in the world, staring into the abyss of being banned for 6-12 months in line with ESIC recommendations."
He says that ESIC was put in a tough situation and couldn't enforce the bans because it would have resulted in killing CS. What resulted was, BLAST, ESIC, and teams came together and gave them a warning and told them, in RL's words "don't do this again or you're gonna get got."
He then says the top teams brushed this off and didn't give a fuck
The new MiBR team playing Flashpoint, that wasn't involved in the previous incidents are doing it again (stream sniping). He gave credit to Flashpoint for the quick resolution and punishment and respect for cogu's response to the situation.
"ESIC came out and said, once more, 'Guys, zero tolerance from now on.'" RL then got upset at community's reaction calling ESIC "pussies" for their non enforcement and said if we want competitive CS we cant ban the top 10 teams.
He points out how players have no integrity and will do anything for an edge as long as they won't get detected or banned or it's within a grey area.
"All of this shit was mad avoidable, even in the pandemic era."
He talks about why aren't we filming them. Why aren't there representatives for leagues and tournaments making sure players aren't cheating?
Match Fixing
"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."
RL says that gambling and skins betting which existed in moderation was "accelerated and blown up by the Call of Duty greedy fucks."
"Never forget TmarTn was on the board of EnVyUs." "His website, CSGOLotto, they had a bunch of off-the-books sponsorships." "NBK promoted them. People forget."
"Those people who had access to the skins, go to the players" "Even people like s1mple, best player in the world, even he scammed knives and skins off fucking fans."
Owners of skin casino sites would approach pros and lend them skins to use in tournaments and possibly keep them after reaching a deal
Players would tip off inside info about matches and teams in exchange for skins. Info such as: roster changes, how they played in scrims
They would use this info to bet and subvert the odds on their sites. "That happened religiously, I can't even tell you how many times it happened."
"I had access to the biggest database of information, from an inside betting circle in NA, and it would take information and screenshots from other pro players, who were feeding them info in exchange for money or skins."
"Some of these players are still playing." "Incredibly, there are players still in the CSPPA today, complaining about the BLAST recordings, that were embroiled in this murky shit back then."
RL also says that there were tournaments where teams contrived with each other, who should throw, who should win.
"There's a handful of people that are trying to fucking clean it up, and you think you get something over the line and you see something like the CSPPA and it's run by corrupt fucking chuckle heads, and now you've got another corrupt body you have to fight on a fucking daily basis, it's demoralizing."
"It's too far gone. Our entire semi-professional scene is compromised."
"It's rife guys, I'm not going to lie any more. It's not just China, it's not just Russia, it's here, it's NA, it's Europe, it's Australia, so much more than you think, so much more than we can prove."
"I get sent chat logs all the time […] and they're morons, these players, short-sighted, amateur, morons and they're doing it on WhatsApp." People would get cut from the bets because they want to make more money, then they leak the logs. He says, from the chat logs, they spread "little" bets across every site they can (400 to 1k dollars) to prevent shifting odds
He says the scumbags who've fucked off to Valorant will do the same there if Riot doesn't do something and says Valorant "is an esports scene heading for a very early fall based on the sheer volume of scumbags that are already there."
"That's tier 2 CS in a nutshell these days. They know they're never going to play in a major, so what's the punishment?"
"All of these tier 2 fucks that are fixing games now they are like the fucking mafia compared to iBuyPower" "These guys are working with organized criminals to fix entire seasons worth of games. That's what's going on in your tier 2 CS."
"I'm literally being told that there are players fixing games at all levels of Chinese esports and motherfuckers with guns are turning up to team houses and stuff."
North America
"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."
RL says the Call of Duty "goblins" that destroyed CS for years are the same people who are now trying to leave CS. "The nerve to treat a game where the fans, and the community, and the TO's were nothing but good to you." "To just kick the players out now and go and leave and say 'It just doesn't make financial sense.' Oh you'll slither back when we have a major though for them stickers won't you."
There's a cascading effect in NA where people don't bother with CS anymore and people like Chaos suffer.
He says NA team owners are incompetent for always wanting it easy and always wanting a guarantee on their investment without skill or nuance.
RL says he would be able to market a team correctly and would have a good ROI and also points out how TSM wouldn't even be bothered to tweet that their team, which was one of the best in the world, was playing at the Major.
He also says not all NA owners are like that, compliments and respects Jason Lake who nearly lost everything to keep Complexity going.
He then calls out the incompetence in Infinite Esports when they acquired OpTic Gaming and bought an Indian CS team.
He says HECZ is not to blame here and that they couldn't tell forsaken was cheating when it was so obvious.
They measured his reaction time to the likes of dev1ce and s1mple
When an enemy showed up on his screen he won that duel something like 44% of the time
"was like the number 1 player in the world statistically"
He brought a laptop to their bootcamp and refused to use the high end PCs that hey provided
He respects Andy Miller (NRG CEO) and HECZ but says that the attitude of not being able to easily monetize their teams is "piss weak" and there needs to be a risk.
He says Chaos EC shouldn't be cutting their roster and should be competent enough to be able to figure out how to make money off their team.
He says there are still opportunities in NA and people are panicking and pulling out, and says Valorant will be the same if not worse.
He also says "bums" who couldn't even get out of groups in NA competitions, are making crazy money in Valorant and says it will continue to inflate.
He also said that he heard rumors that EG (Evil Geniuses) are done.
He also thinks that the rumors of a Valve franchised league from before was sparked up from "these lazy fabled weak NA fucking team owners basically trying to see if Valve would bite at the hook if it was dangled and they didn't"
Slasher says NA team owners are really in favor of franchised leagues because they want to make more money. "Most of the powerful team owners right now are on board with ditching this third party organization structure, or they are trying to play this power politics with all the TOs, and that is contributing to a lot of the problems there"
RL says that Riot has proved they can run a franchised league (LCS) and will be profitable in 2021 which is what a lot of team owners care about and says the competition will only serve to snatch people away from CS.
RL continues to say, "I am so sick and tired of what we have done to this scene, I am just exhausted with it." "I think we have legitimately fucked it, I really think we have. I think we're staring into almost like a CGS (Championship Gaming Series) wasteland in NA." "Counter-Strike esports is a fucking joke."
Talent
"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."
RL says that people like Sean Gares and ddk switching over to Valorant isn't for financial reasons because they are making less over there.
He points out that TO's can't even give talent a 3 month in advance calendar.
Because of the pandemic TO's won't hire certain people and some people are working more hours for the same money.
He says we as a community don't respect journalists enough which is why we don't have good journalists.
He also says DeKay is leaving the scene soon and that Thorin is close to leaving also
He says he had to talk a caster down from quitting and was struggling to find reasons.
He says that DreamHack told Vince they would hire him but not if he wants to stick with dusT and says that this is the norm in esports. "Constant leveraging of people against each other." and says this is why we don't have a talent union.
New gen casters are getting put into shit situations and the community's reaction to them is adding fuel to the fire
He says the reason Moses left was because of the terrible conditions
He says that Anders had to constantly leave his family and kid because someone fucked up or broke promises and had to constantly tell his kid to their face that "daddy can't be home this weekend."
He says that esports has always been a lie to sell you this dream, "Meanwhile there's about 2% of the cunts getting all the checks."
Valve
"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"
Slasher says that the larger aspect of esports as a whole compared to other entertainment mediums and Valve's lack of inattention are the bigger problems. He continues saying that the fact that Valve let their game be ran as an esport, they need to take on the responsibilities of it.
Both Slasher and RL wants Valve to take control but not on the level of Riot Games, there needs to be a balance.
In case it was ever a question: Gabe Newell has been to 0 CSGO Majors.
RL calls Valve out saying they could have done something during the gambling era.
He says Valve used to come to the majors, but doesn't think they do anymore.
RL had met with Valve at the Cluj-Napoca Major and had tried to appeal iBP's indefinite punishment and had also gave Brax's life story:
A recent family member passed away, they had lost a lot of income, they had to live in trailer, iBuyPower did not pay any salaries, and was pressured by family to make money who didn't support his career.
RL said that Valve told him, "How dare you try and make us feel guilty." "We shouldn't feel bad about enforcing the only thing that matters that we need to make players afraid of: cheating and match fixing"
RL also tried to share other info about match fixing and nothing came of it
RL points out that Source 2 or a new engine is not something you will want based on the experience of transitioning from CS 1.6 to CS:S. "Valve's track record with brand new engines being launched, not fucking great from what I remember."
Slasher says "If there is anything the community should do, is pressure Valve to hire a community manager."
They say that we need a commissioner, a community manager (not the person who runs the Twitter who posts memes all day), then we need to have a circuit
RL reiterates that Valve doesn't care about CS esports and says they need to change the culture at Valve to make them care about CS esports
Slasher says a systemic problem is making it so working on CSGO would be a bad decision for you as an employee for Valve
He also hasn't talked to Valve in ages and have sent over bugs and cheats and doesn't get emails back anymore
Slasher says we should be directing attention at the developer leads, pointing out Ido Magal, if he even is still the project lead
RL thinks that Ido and Brian are the only people that "vaguely even give a fuck about CS" and were the only people that RL recalled that actually read Reddit and paid attention from time to time
"It is really fucking precarious. Somebody has got to step the fuck up and start giving a shit"
Slasher suggests org owners, with CSPPA, with ESIC, with TOs have a concerted effort against Valve
"Riot Games are doing better things than Valve in the esports space" which is something RL didn't think he'd say.
"People who used to be talent, working with unions, arguing with other talent, when the unions fucked them over, can't understand their perspective, TOs fucking over broadcast talent, broadcast talent wanting to leave and go and work for orgs, orgs having no money, Valve might take coaches away because all the coaches are cheating, ESIC has about 4 people in a fucking call doing the investigations, everyone thinks they're spies for ESL, ESL are just the evil fucking overlords wanting to rule the scene and will just somehow, like cockroaches outliving a nuclear bomb, and Valve are in a fucking holiday in Hawaii thinking about the next Dota character because they don't give a fuck about us."
Closing Statements
"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."
RL compared the Counter-Strike scene to the people on the Titanic who ran around with guns robbing people while the boat was sinking.
"We have given up on being a respectable esports scene." "We are now a conduit to make money for those who want to just milk it, just have one last ride, one last roll of the dice. It's done." "What a fucking mess. What have we done to our fucking scene?"
"There's just too much self-interest driving all of this." "I don't see a way we stop the dominoes." "When it's that bad, when there's that many dishonest people that ESIC have to come out and say that if we punish them all there's no one left. What does that tell you?"
"How many opportunities have we had to clean house? How many times have we said, 'this must never happen again', and another scandal." "The entire skins betting operations was the biggest criminal conspiracy in esports ever executed and no one has been punished for it." "The people who could be driving that don't want to."
"Right now people are fans of those organizations because the scene has value. It is worth being a fan of Astralis because they are excellent at Counter-Strike. It is worth being a fan of s1mple because he is the best player in Counter-Strike, maybe the exception of ZywOo. If the scene is devalued, if the scene loses its meaning, those things lose its meaning too, and people will leave, people will stop tuning into the games. I have seen it happen in multiple esports, this is not my first time at the rodeo. I am getting big Brood War vibes right now and I don't like it."
"The role you play in all of this as fans, as viewers, as listeners, as consumers of esports content, it's absolutely imperative that you know who the good guys are. It's absolutely imperative that you use your voice. It's absolutely imperative that when things are bad, you know who, at least, is trying to make them good, and you have to apply your criticism to the right targets."
He continues saying it's no good in continuing to attack ESIC and saying how they are bad, ESIC have it hard
He says CSPPA are on the right side of the argument on BLAST but have been on the wrong side of many arguments many times.
"If you are not willing to stand along side the weakest member of the union, with the least amount of influence, and the least amount of power, then it is not a union at all and you shouldn't pose as one." "You wanna serve a bunch of special interest do it, everyone else in esports fucking does, but do not pose as something you are not." "We love the players. I've been fighting for players rights for as long as I've been able to, but the CSPPA is not what we needed."
"They are not applying the pressure to the right people, they are not fighting the right battles, they are not helping their weaker members."
He says what orgs have done by keeping or hiring coaches is bad. "When you give up on holding an appreciable standard, you've lost the scene" "Competition matters, rules matter, punishments matter, achievements matter, excellence matters" "If you start stripping that away, you have nothing" "You guys need to take that knowledge and apply it sensibly."
"Valve has sold you all down the river, they sold everyone in the esports scene down the river, tournament organizers are selling their talent down the river. Don't hate on them for sounding tired after a 16 hour day. Don't hate on them because the hype for a matchup they've seen for the 20th time in the past 3 months, they can't be as excited or it sounds contrived. Support your guys, they're there for you, these are your people."
"This community has got to start acting like one for the first fucking time. Just put the petty shit away, let's try and fix this fucking scene while we still have one to save."
"You can't rely on Valve, you can't rely on ESL, you can't rely on the CSPPA, you can't rely on anyone." "Once again, it's gonna be the likes of us, the amateurs, the people who give a fuck, rolling up our sleeves and grafting." "I'm old and tired and I don't want to have to do it again. People need to pick up the torch and do it."
"Like Michal did, like Dudenhoeffer did. You see something wrong, fix it. You see somebody doing something wrong, call it out. If you think something could be better, let people know."
"Vote with your wallets if you're not happy with the direction Valve goes in. If when we do get to the Major, they serve up another subpar, same old bullshit stickers and signatures package again, do not buy it."
"You're a powerful block and if you use it correctly we can fucking avert this disaster."
"I'm not doing another year in this broken, bust-up fucking scene, where everyone is miserable, everyone is broke, everyone is tired, and everyone is trying to fucking rob everyone else, blind, while the fucking people who are meant to be protecting you, are just fucking enhancing it and lining their own pockets."
"I'm not doing it anymore and you shouldn't want to do it either."
"I stand by every fucking thing I said. I mean it, because this game fucking matters to me, this scene fucking matters to me. I put my life into this, my adult life, and to see it in this state is fucking sad."
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